Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research-IOBE maintains many reservations for next year, even forecasting 0% growth for 2023, according to the unfavorable scenario. At the same time, according to what the head of the Institute, Nikos Vettas, said in a press conference a while ago, he estimates that inflation will move slightly below 10% for this year, while in 2022, it will move between 4% and 5% .
Beyond that, IOBE revises upward the forecast for recovery in 2022, to 6% at constant prices, due to stronger expansion of private consumption (8.1%) and exports (12.5%). The forecast for the whole of this year also includes an increase in imports by 13.5% and a milder than previous forecasts strengthening of investments (6.6%). For 2023, IOBE expects a markedly slower annual growth of 1.6% in real terms due to a slowdown in the global economy and sustained inflation and uncertainty. In terms of components, only investment is expected to exceed this year’s performance, with a higher annual expansion in 2023 (10.5%) while consumption is expected to slow (0.6%). Little further deterioration in the current account is expected (from around 7% of GDP this year), with exports and imports growing annually in 2023 by 3.8% and 4.8% respectively.
The rate of change in the CPI in the first nine months of 2022 was particularly high at 10.1%, compared to marginal inflation of 0.2% a year ago. The strong rise is mainly due to the increasing direct effect of energy goods, and the stimulation of domestic demand. IOBE estimates that prices will remain on an upward trajectory this year, in the region of 9.7%, mainly due to the strong rise in energy product prices, but also consumer demand. For 2023, and taking into account the assumptions and trends shaping the prices, it is predicted that the General Consumer Price Index will strengthen in the region of 4.2%.
