By Alexandra Fotaki

With Greek-Turkish tensions having reached unprecedented levels, due to Ankara’s continual threats of war with warnings that it could occupy a Greek Eastern Aegean island, the two countries are counting their allies, and Greece’s appear to be standing firmly by its side in response to Turkey’s apparent attempts to use its bellicose stance toward Athens as leverage to exact concessions from Washington, particularly as regards the sale of American-made F-16 fighter jets.

“They [the Greeks] are using many countries as intermediaries,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on 6 October at the first meeting of the new European Political Community in Prague, with 43 leaders in attendance.

The Turkish president was referring to Greece’s successful efforts in international forums and in bilateral relations to seek diplomatic support and highlight Ankara’s continual provocations and threats of war.

Erdogan slams third countries’ involvement in Greek-Turkish disputes

Erdogan was particularly enraged when Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, in a 17 May address to a Joint Session to the US Congress, called on the American legislature not to approve the sale of war planes to Turkey.

He claimed Mitsotakis had violated an agreement with him not to involve third countries in bilateral disputes, which the Greek PM has denied.

Erdogan, both at the leaders’ dinner where he accused Greece of escalating tensions in the Aegean, and more extensively during a news conference afterwards on 6 October, once again unleashed threats against Greece.

He reiterated that “we may come one night”, implying that the Turkish Armed Forces could stage a landing and occupation of a Greek Aegean island.

Erdogan was speaking just a few days after Turkey and Libya signed an agreement, based on a 2019 memorandum delimiting the two countries’ Exclusive Maritime Zones (EEZs), which has been rejected as illegal by the EU and the US.

EU immediately denounces new Turkey-Libya EEZ agreement

“The European Union takes note of the reports indicating that Turkey and the Libyan Government of National Unity have signed an agreement on hydrocarbons based on the 2019 Turkey-Libya Memorandum of Understanding on delimitation of maritime jurisdiction areas in the Mediterranean. The EU recalls that its position on this Memorandum has been clearly stated by the European Council in December 2019 and remains unchanged: The 2019 Turkey-Libya Memorandum of Understanding infringes upon the sovereign rights of third States, does not comply with the Law of the Sea and cannot produce any legal consequences for third States,” the EU’s lead spokesman for foreign affairs and security policy, Peter Stano, said in a statement on 3 October.

Nadir in Greek-Turkish relations

Greek-Turkish relations have hit rock bottom.

The steadfast insistence of the prime minister’s office and of the Greek Armed Forces on reacting calmly, with a stress on Turkey’s violations of international law, has become almost obsessive, and is intended to deprive Ankara of the pretext that it appears to be seeking to initiate a military confrontation.

With this backdrop, Athens and Ankara are once again in the process of counting their allies and, based on public statements, Greece’s are more numerous and stand firmly by its side.

Greece-US strategic alliance

Athens, to a very large degree, is counting on its strategic cooperation with Washington, demonstrating its dedication to a choice it made many years ago.

For its part, the US has never in the past made such clear moves to support Greece and Cyprus.

Athens serves as a vehicle for Washington to increase its pressure on Ankara, in response to Erdogan’s choice of maintaining close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

US, Germany reject new Turkey-Libya agreement

Even if the US State Department does not cross its red lines as regards Ankara [a steadfast policy of equal distances and calls for the resolution of disputes through bilateral negotiations], its rejection of the new Turkey-Libya agreement was received with a sense of relief by Athens.

Berlin’s reaction was immediate and even clearer.

The German foreign ministry spokesman condemned Turkey’s machinations, indicating, by all appearances, that former chancellor Angela Merkel’s equal distances policy is finished.

Even if Germany is not in a position to annul its contracts to sell submarines to Turkey, it now openly condemns Ankara’s provocations against Greece and is standing by Athens’ side.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu criticised Berlin’s stance during a July visit of his German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock, to Ankara.

Egypt’s support for Greece

Egypt is also on Greece’s side, and Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias’ visit to Cairo today for talks with his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, is viewed as exceptionally significant, both on the level of symbolism and substance.

The two countries’ delimitation of their EEZs, albeit after the 2019 Turkey-Libya memorandum, creates a serious de facto situation that serves as a bulwark against Ankara’s expansionist designs.

Egypt condemned the new Turco-Libyan agreement, the very day it was signed, and relations between Cairo and Ankara remain at a nadir.

Macron urges Erdogan to initiate Greek-Turkish dialogue

At the Prague European summit, French President Emmanuel Macron urged Erdogan to resume a dialogue with Greece and defuse tensions.

Paris has repeatedly issued statements in support of Greece, condemning Turkish provocations.

Ankara still an important ally of the West

Turkey continues to be an exceptionally important ally in NATO and of the US and the West more generally.

In that context, Erdogan’s contention that Washington is “utilising” Greece against Turkey does not seem far-fetched.

Nevertheless, the current confluence of events, namely Russia’s war against Ukraine, does not permit fissures in NATO, and Erdogan’s actions seem to be functioning as a divisive factor.

Russia not prepared to recognise state in Turkish-occupied Cyprus

For its part, Russia is not prepared to satisfy Erdogan’s desire for Moscow to take a step toward recognition of the regime in Turkish-occupied Cyprus as a state (Turkey is the only country in the world that recognises it as such).

Britain’s stance towards Turkey’s provocations against Greece remains somewhat equivocal, even as Qatar has created its own interests in the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus, which Turkey does not recognise.

The looming questions are where Erdogan’s pressures will lead, what impact a military clash may have on Nicosia and Athens, and how Greece’s allies and partners will react if such and eventuality materialises.

Greece right now appears to have a far greater number of allies than Ankara, but no one can characterise Turkey as isolated.