With the prospect of single-party rule or the formation of a viable coalition government weakened by the EYP surveillance scandal, rampant rumours that have circulated for months that the government may change the electoral law to to lower the threshold for  the top party up to a 50-seat-bonus have been rekindled.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has repeatedly spoken of the need for a government with a strong parliamentary majority in order to secure political stability, but unlike many ND cadres he has never raised the prospect of changing the electoral law for a second time during his term in office,

In 2016, the previous SYRIZA government abolished any bonus parliamentary seats for the first party by passing a proportional representation electoral law.

In 2020, the year after he was elected, Mitsotakis changed SYRIZA’s law to give bonus seats to the top party, but far fewer than the 50 or 40 seats that were automatically given in the past,

However, ND’s amendment, by law, can only be implemented in the general election following the upcoming one, and it now appears that even the bonus seats in the 2020 law will not be enough to give New Democracy, which is ahead by a substantial margin in all opinion polls, an absolute parliamentary majority.

Past hopes that New Democracy could form a coalition government with Pasok have been dashed by the recent revelation of a National Intelligence Service (EYP) surveillance scandal, as EYP, which falls under the direct jurisdiction of the PM’s office, was wiretapping the leader of the centre-left party when he was just a European Parliament deputy but also a top contender in the party leadership campaign.

Up to 50 bonus seats for top party, but threshold may be lowered

Under ND’s 2020 electoral law, the first party, as long as it garners at least 25 percent of the vote, automatically receives a 20-seat bonus, but it also receives one additional bonus seat for every extra half a percentage point of the popular vote, with a ceiling of 50 bonus seats if it garners 40 percent of the vote.

Change of electoral law seen by some as a priori admission of defeat

Though some ND MPs have argued that a second change in the electoral law under ND rule essentially constitutes an a priori admission of a forthcoming significant defeat for the ruling party, sources say that the government is now mulling the prospect of changing the law to give the 50-seat bonus to the top party even if it receives a smaller percentage of the popular vote than required in the 2020 law, and to make the number of bonus seats contingent on the popular vote percentage point difference between the first and second party (the greater the spread between the first and second party, the more bonus seats for the top party).

If Mitsotakis opts for that sort of change in the electoral law, the consensus is that the move will delay the date of elections (despite the PM’s persistent denials, there has long been talk of snap elections, even within the cabinet), so as not to make it appear that a new electoral law aims at immediate benefits for the ruling party.

Government spokesman wavers on change of electoral law

At his daily briefing today, reflecting the ambivalence in the ruling party, government spokesman Yannis Economou (photo) first intimated that the government might change the electoral law in order to ensure political stability, but right afterwards said that the PM will serve out his four-year term and then hold elections under the current framework, unless he decides otherwise.

“The steadfast position of our government is that the electoral law should reflect electoral balances and lead to strong and stable governments…and avert a power vacuum and the formation of weak government.”

Immediately thereafter, however, Economou said: “The government is heading toward elections at the end of its four-year term with the existing institutional framework. Beyond that, there are issues that must be taken into account and given attention. Nothing has changed,” he said.

However, when asked if Mitsotakis has received advice to change the law, the spokesman said that, “When the prime minister feels the need to speak about this issue, you can be sure that he will do so at the time that he chooses, if he chooses to do so.”