Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar unleashed new threats shortly before floating drilling rig Abdul Hamid Han’s departure from port for drilling in the Mediterranean.

The Minister of Defense of Turkey, in an ironic and undiplomatic way, targeted the Greek island of Kastelorizo once ​​again.

Speaking at the conference of Turkish ambassadors taking place in Ankara, he referred to the distance of Kastelorizo from Turkey, saying that it is only 1,950 meters and military cadets could even just swim there.

In fact, referring to a Greek minister, who allegedly used the phrase used by King Leonidas of Sparta when facing the might of the Persian invading forces of Xerxes, that said  “come and take them”, he replied “if God wills, this can also happen”.

He also mentioned the Greek militarized islands.

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All eyes on the Turkish drilling rig

Abdul Hamid Han begins its journey today, but with no clear destination. There are many who expect moves similar to those the research vessel Oruc Reis conducted in 2020, with the government, however, underlining in all tones that 2022 is not 2020, while clarifying that Athens is prepared for all eventualities. Turkish diplomats have made the same admission regarding the changes since 2020, pointing out that the geostrategic chessboard has changed dramatically.

The destination of the Turkish drilling rig remains under wraps, and in the near future it will be seen to what extent Erdogan wants to raise the tension in the Eastern Mediterranean, but also how much he wants to test the limits of NATO and the West. It is also certain that Abdul Hamid Han’s trip also serves internal political reasons in Turkey.

Three scenarios, three intensity levels

In the game that Erdogan is playing, there are three scenarios for Abdul Hamid’s voyage. The first which is the one which is considered to have the least chances but which will raise the tension exorbitantly is for the Turkish drilling rig to follow the course of OrucReis. A direct provocation – questioning the borders and sovereign rights of Greece, a NATO member country, by a NATO ally.

The other scenarios concern the possibility that rig will head towards the Cypriot EEZ. And either move to areas which the Republic of Cyprus has licensed for research, such as plot 6 for which there is also information about a large deposit, or to move to the area between Mersina and Kyrenia, which is the most “painless” scenario, despite still being nominally in Cypriot EEZ, but off the coast of the territory occupied by the Turkish Army.