New Democracy leads SYRIZA by between 7.8 and 8.2 percentage points – about one percentage point less than in the 26 May European Parliament election – in a new poll conducted by the Pulse polling company and presented tonight on SKAI television’s evening newscast.
In an extrapolation that distributes the undecided vote in proportion to that of respondents who have already decided, the median spread between ND and SYRIZA is eight percentage points.
ND garners between 32.2 percent and37.8 percent, SYRIZA receives between 24.4 percent and 29.6 percent, the Movement for Change between 5.5 percent and 8.5 percent, the KKE Greek Communist Party between 4.1 and 6.9 percent, and Golden Dawn between 3.2 percent and 5.8 percent.
The poll suggests that New Democracy can garner an absolute parliamentary majority with 152 seats in the 300-member legislature.
SYRIZA and ND have kept most of their electoral base from the European elections, with SYRIZA retaining 87 percent of its voters and New Democracy 90 percent of its base.
ND lost three percent of its European election base to SYRIZA.
The undecided vote has dropped from 9 percent to 7.5 percent of the electorate.
Scenarios, half the electorate wants coalition government
If Elliniki Lysi does not make it into parliament, New Democracy will have a six-seat majority (156 seats), but if it does ND only gets a two-seat majority (152 seats).
Nevertheless, the poll indicates that nearly half the electorate (47 percent) wants a coalition government rather than single-party New Democracy rule.
Thirty-three percent of respondents preferred single party ND rule and only 12 percent single-party SYRIZA rule, while 15 percent prefer a New Democracy-led coalition and 19 percent of respondents prefer a SYRIZA-led coalition.
Meanwhile, 13 percent of respondents would like to see a grand coalition with ND, SYRIZA, and other parties.
ND leads by 7.45 percentage points among decided voters
Among decided voters New Democracy leads SYRIZA by 7.45 percentage points (34 percent to 26.55 percent), followed by Movement for Change with 7 percent, KKE with 5 percent, and Golden Dawn with 4.5 percent.
Two new parties in Parliament?
Two new parties according to the poll can pass the three percent threshold to enter parliament as former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis’ MeRa 25 garners 3.5 percent, and Kyriakos Velopoulos’ Elliniki Lysi garnered 3.0 percent, barely passing the threshold.
Compared to the last Pulse poll New Democracy has lost half a percentage point (dropping from 35 to 34.5 percent).
SYRIZA gained one percentage point (rising from 26 to 27 percent).
