The first period of the financial crisis was dominated by the “bailout or default” dilemma and the “anti-bailout versus pro-bailout” clash.
During the second phase, which started in autumn of 2011 and carried on until the second elections of June 2012, the political developments in the country were defined by the “euro or drachma” dilemma.
Since the catalytic results of those elections and the emergence of new political forces, the country apparently, has begun swaying between “systemic” and “anti-systemic”, while other ambitious formations appeared later representing the “old” and “new”, the “different” or “non-conformist”.
In the midst of all of the dilemmas and contradictions, political parties with an extreme rhetoric and attitude emerged. Greek politics entered a phase of political irrationality, which, despite the special circumstances, could not last in a country where democracy is established.
The case of Golden Dawn and ANEL is indicative and revealing of the rise and decline of such irrational political formations during the crisis.
But even the new political efforts – at first the “Initiative of 58” and later the Olive Tree and the River – as well as the forays of businessmen in politics, are phenomena attributed to the effects of the developing financial crisis on the political body.
Lately though, following the beneficial for our country financial developments, the achievement of primary surpluses, the easy recapitalization of Greek banks, the return to the markets and the looming settlement of Greek debts, a new wave of rationality is penetrating Greek society, allowing the political forces that had been persecuted and questioned over the previous years to cultivate expectations of exiting the crisis and to set the dilemma of “stability or instability” in the upcoming double elections.
In the upcoming elections the body electorate will vote under the influence of the many impressions and conflicting feelings experienced during the four-year financial crisis.
Until recently most considered that the anti-bailout opposition would prevail and that the people would choose based on past experiences or anger and a desire to punish those responsible for the tragic consequences of the crisis they left behind.
Life, however, goes on, emotions are subdued, the priorities of most people change, consciousness is affected and will be affected, nothing remains the same, everything changes and of course, the people’s choices change.
With the “pro-bailout vs. anti-bailout” conflict dying out, many of the forces to emerge in the years of the great tension are starting to lose steam. Mr. Kammenos’ Independent Greeks (ANEL) are on their dying breath, as they have run out of fuel.
Members of the populist Right, who tried to follow Mr. Kammenos’ example are probably making their attempt at the wrong time and don’t seem to have any prospect, beyond low-level negotiations in the next wave of political reform within the Right.
DIMAR, as it seems, will likely pay for its constant indecisions that defines it.
Golden Dawn is a special case entirely on its own, which is currently under immense pressure, but nobody can safely say what its position in domestic politics will be.
The River is also another special case. It is the latest party to emerge, during the final phase of the crisis. Some believe that it has the opportunity to play a catalytic role; others simply believe that it took advantage of the path paved and abandoned by the “Initiative of 58”; others treat it as a passing fad.
The future Olive Tree will depend on PASOK’s endurance and the prospect of a reform in the Center Left.
SYRIZA, on the other hand, appears to be unable to adapt to the new circumstances. It never accepted the primary surplus, doubted the return to the markets, denied any prospect of exiting the crisis and ended up dealing with an internal conflict regarding plans for a potential return to the drachma. Crucially though, the refusal to adapt and the internal conflict prevented it from expanding, which is unprecedented for a ruling party.
New Democracy and Mr. Samaras in particular are investing in the fears and anxieties of the urban populace that is seeking stability and calm.
It invests its hopes in the conservative reflexes of Greek society and is trying to take advantage of the expectations generated by the financial developments.
Based on all of the above, nobody can safely say anything, beyond the fact that Greece will follow a European and a reform path. This cannot seemingly change.
However the upcoming elections are very important and are capable of causing a political earthquake. The parties will change and the factions will reorganize after the European elections.
Experts predict that a predominantly right wing, a centrist, a center-left and a predominantly left-wing faction will emerge. We will essentially enter a new historic period.
The radical change of the public and private economy is already taking place and the political reform is closely following suit.
Antonis Karakousis
– Originally published in the Saturday print edition
