The Prime Minister’s office telephones are constantly ringing over the past few days. The tension, which stems from the critical nature of the circumstances, is instantly noticeable. Mr. Samaras is forced to interrupt his conversations due to the emergency of the matters and the need to personally monitor, intervene, anticipate, encourage and motivate his ministers and partners. Some times he loses his temper, but quickly recovers. The political and social expectations are great, the problems are endless and the outstanding commitments even more. The obligations are still liable, the “pushes” are many and an accident is lurking – it could happen any moment – in this so mismatched daily route between the troika, Golden Dawn, public finances, diplomatic “episodes” and international investors. However, even though the environment appears to be turbulent, unstable and almost disruptive, Mr. Samaras appears stable.
The partners and in recent times the many – domestic and foreign – visitors to Maximos Hall understand that in this whirlwind of problems and challenges, he has plotted a course and has a particular strategy, directly related to the concept of political and real time.
It is obvious that the Prime Minister is operating based on a thought out central political plan, which expands in time and is determined by the achievement of basic goals and specific pursuits. Its outlook is anything but short-term; the plan is long-term and will not end in the upcoming May European elections, like many assume.
For Mr. Samaras the first goal is to stabilize the economy and initiate a virtuous growth cycle. Achieving particular political goals and pursuits supportive to the central goal will provide the economy with the necessary political time. It is obvious that the Golden Dawn revelation provided the government and Prime Minister with additional political time.
Mr. Samaras tells his partners that “we took the risk with Nikos Dendias, overcame the fears and hesitations of must and implement the law” while adding that “we will continue until the end”. Mr. Samaras stresses that “the law is our guide” and explains that “whoever is against the law must know that he will face the consequences of his actions”.
He repeats that “we took the risk and it worked out”. It would be accurate to state that government surprised and amazed many with the operation against Golden Dawn, especially the suspicious Left, which predicted Mr. Samaras to decline but now realizes that he is coming out stronger. The same applies to a number of political factors – including the Right – which spread and continue to spread scenarios of a sudden call of the Samaras government. Even the scenarios of a far-right nationalist front that was to replace Golden Dawn are beginning to subside, based on recent revelations. Nobody is willing to express these thoughts, when considering how huge the cost is to cover up the monsters in Golden Dawn.
The climate change in Greece
It is interesting that the political results of the operation against the neo-Nazis came at a time when the country’s fiscal progress is highlighted internationally. All international financial centers accept the achievement of the primary surplus, are gradually abandoning the catastrophic scenarios and are now treating Greece like an investment opportunity. Troika head Poul Tomsen recently commented in the sidelines of the IMF’s annual meeting in the USA that “for the first time I notice a real investment interest for Greece”.
Based on the above, the Prime Minister knows that he has earned political time domestically and can promise to the Greek people, without fear of betrayal, that there will be no more across-the-board cuts of wages and pensions. Additionally he has brought stability to the international environment for Greece, so that he can look forward to better treatment from partners and creditors alike.
Mr. Samaras’ plans include transmitting this certainty to the interior of the country, to prove once and for all that the majority of worries are over. The Prime Minister wants to take advantage of the primary surplus results to that end. In the past he committed to using 70% of the primary surplus to rectify injustices from the implementation of the bailout plan. He estimates that the primary surplus will exceed 500 million euros and based on his commitment can use about 350 million to support the sections of the population that have seen the most significant drops in revenue over the past four years.
The Prime Minister doesn’t hide the fact that he wants to split that sum amongst those with small pensions, uniformed officers and judges. How the sum will be distributed, whether through lump sums or wage and pension raises has yet to be determined. Just like if such a choice will be approved by Brussels. When asked, the Minister of Finances Mr. Yannis Stournaras admits that there will be difficulties. In any case though, either by the end of the year or early next year, Mr. Samaras wants to signal to the Greek people that the efforts are paying off and that the restitution of injustices has begun.
Irrespective how the 70% of the primary surplus is redistributed, the Prime Minister is expecting a “progress gift” from the Europeans. He refers to the promise of a new debt settlement, which he expects in spring. He estimates that it will be generous and will rid the budget of the interest rates and ensure the debt viability, paving the way for the Greek economy’s return to the markets. The bad thing is that in recent days the Europeans are backtracking and want to postpone the adjustment for after the European elections.
Such a development is obviously negative and complicates Mr. Samaras’ political planning. The Prime Minister hoped and continues to hope that the adjustment, the “progress gift” of our partners, will be offered before the European elections, allowing him to mitigate that political impressions from the implementation of the bailout program and thus achieve a greater election result in the in-many-respects problematic race for the European Parliament.
In any case, the Prime Minister does not want to associate his government’s lifespan with the European election results. If proven right from the financial developments, he estimates that regardless of the outcome, the European election results will be manageable.
That way he can expand his political planning. To the extent that the economy continues to improve, the next challenge for the Prime Minister is to select a new President of Democracy in the spring of 2015, when Mr. Papoulias’ second term expires.
President from the Left!
For Mr. Samaras this is not an insurmountable obstacle. In private he has stated that “it is possible to find a mutually-agreed person” and that “let the Left make a proposal”.
That is because Mr. Samaras truly believes that elections must take place as planned, at the end of the four-year term, in the summer of 2016. By the, he believes, the financial reform program will have come into effect, the investors he meets in Athens and around the world will come and he will have won the bet of reinstating Greece into the world financial system. He claims that “the Greek people will have the choice based on certain results”.
He then adds that “they can choose whoever they want”. That is how Mr. Samaras wants to proceed. The truth though is that the path he has chosen is exceptionally steep. Accidents are just waiting to happen and he has chosen a long and politically perilous path to travel.
Antonis Karakousis
– Originally printed in the Sunday print edition
