These days Greece is fully exposed.
The endless flow of refugees and threat of hundreds of thousands of persecuted people from the war in Syria and the general crisis in the Middle East will inevitable disturb the country’s inner balance.
The refugee caravans already paint a picture of decline, which combined with the longstanding domestic social conflicts, create a sense of generalized depression among the Greek people. Meanwhile, the prolonged economic uncertainty with the creditors and partners and the first review which is taking months to complete are exacerbating the sense of instability, leaving the country vulnerable.
Despite the earnest efforts of the governor of the Bank of Greece to create a climate of optimism and cultivate expectations of growth, the financial developments remain negative.
The recession will simply not go away, poverty is affecting more and more people, unemployment is soaring over 25%, the capital controls are stifling any financial activity, the banks are dead and businesses are fighting tooth and nail just to survive.
Everybody knows that unless the review ends promptly, the uncertainty will perpetuate and the Greek State will once again be faced with a liquidity problem, where it will be difficult to fulfill its obligations.
Payments will be postponed, with wages and pensions being prioritized, similar to what happened last year.
The government foolishly believes that it has the opportunity to bargain over the review using the refugee crisis, thinking that it can trade refugees with measures and debt. It does not realize though that without fundamental changes, the economy will collapse in disrepute.
The next two months are absolutely critical. The Greek economy has the opportunity to find balance, but at the same time it faces the prospect of absolute catastrophe.
If the government does not rush to implement as soon as possible what it agreed to last summer, then Greece may be a complete and utter loss.
This time there will be no second chance. Since there is a lot going on in the broader region, the losses will not just be economic, they will be national.
That is why it is imperative to complete the review. Greece has many reasons to do all that it can to finally exit this mire of an economy crisis; to demonstrate to the world that it endures, that it can participate in the management of the major international problems, such as the refugee crisis.
Otherwise, if Greece sinks financially, it will also collapse nationally.
Antonis Karakousis
Originally published in the Sunday print edition
