These days American drones (unmanned spy planes) have been zipping through the Greek skies with unknown destinations.
The Greek authorities provide the necessary amenities for these spy missions, following the relevant American requests, which are not as obvious as many may think.
Those closely following the international developments are aware that the interest in the greater Southeastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, Turkey, the Caucasus, Caspian and Southern Russia is increasing. And it is not just the threat of the Islamic State that is generating this interest.
When called upon to explain what is going on this greater region, reliable diplomatic sources do not hide the fact that the oil and natural gas reserves and their transportation routes greatly define the region.
They cynically confess that with the natural energy sources being limited and not expected to last until 2050, the strategic importance of this region multiplies. The importance of the greater region of these energy sources is significant for the super powers and is critical in determining the conditions for a long-term stability.
Only at present the region is dominated by upheaval, which makes the transition to a stable phase difficult and time-consuming. Let us not delude ourselves, this transition will take a lot of effort and strength and will likely cause conflicts and upheavals.
Reliable diplomatic sources warn that the future ion the region will not be rosy. The geopolitical poker game that is being played has many dangers and threats for everyone. There are many undetermined factors and parameters that will influence the control of energy sources and establishing long-term stability in the greater region.
The Americans, for example, who have many reasons to be interested in the region, recognize ISIS as a threat and understand Turkey’s Islamic games, however their stance towards is not defined by it. The Americans recognize the geostrategic location of our neighbor, they accept Turkey’s role in the transportation if oil and natural gas from the Caspian and treat it as key country against Russia, which they cannot trust following the developments in Ukraine.
They would also like to take advantage of Iran’s hostility towards the jihadists, but in no case do they want to see a purely Shi’ite alliance between Tehran and Beirut, because that would pose a threat to their traditional ally in the region, which is none other than Israel.
They would much rather prefer that a new Kurdish state emerged as a wedge between Iran and Lebanon.
Of course this is where things start to get complicated. A unified Kurdish state, which would come between Iran and Israel, cannot emerge without Turkey ceding territory from its southeastern corner.
Our neighbors would never accept such a thing. They have spent countless resources and lost thousands of soldiers in the past few decades in order to set the Kurdish areas in the south east under their control and they will not accept the creation of Kurdish state, which would see them lose territory, without a fight or generous trades.
The oil fields of Mosul could provide a solution, but that is probably not enough and does not suit the imperial profile that the Sultan Tayyip Erdogan has been developing in the past few years.
The same diplomatic sources note that the mere ascertainment of a potential threat, much less a direct expression of such intentions, would automatically trigger Turkey’s claims on the western front. The Turkish provocations in Cyprus are already being treated as a response to the pressure Turkey is experiencing on its eastern front. It has been reported that Turkey has suffered many defeats, political and diplomatic, on its eastern front and its establishment is vying for quick victories on other fronts.
Greece, which is hoping to evolved into a energy power, cannot obviously stand idle with a a geopolitical domino occurring in the greater Mediterranean and Middle East region. The country must secure itself against the dangers, liberate itself from the financial dependence, seek out alliances, exhaust all possibility of coming to an agreement with neighboring Turkey and of course work on developing a strategy that will protect its national interests.
Foreign diplomats associate this strategy with supporting the Greek armed forces and are essentially preparing the domestic political classes for a new expensive arms race. They point out that you cannot take advantage of oil and natural gas without reliable Armed Forces. They do not hesitate to warn that “without international alliances and strong Armed Forces, oil can quickly turn from a blessing into a curse”.
In any case, beyond the financial crisis which it has to overcome, Greece has to understand\ that it is on the edge of a zone of major conflicts and upheavals, where border changes are dominant element.
A geopolitical poke game is already being played in the greater Mediterranean and Middle East. There are many players and we already have a seat at the table…
Antonis Karakousis
– Originally published in the Sunday print edition
